Risk and complexity comparision in the scrum methodology

The methodology is a very important factor that influence on the probability of success. It is very easy to see if we compare the new and old methods of software development .

The oldest one have less probability of success. Why? Because they are focused on process. There is no collaboration , no communication between workers and that’s why the traditional methods are less flexible , do not adapt appropriate to the changing circumstances and off course the effect is then worse.

The new methods of development software like Scrum methodology are focused on people. They contact before and after every step of the project ,collaborate , exchange the information , solve problems .Because of that the whole process is more flexible. People working together may , with better effect, adapt to changing external environment. The Scrum methodology has a high degree of tolerance for changes and high probability of success because it assumed that the process is from the start unpredictable .

The complexity

The complexity generally consists of:

  • Development environment variables ( f.ex skilled professionals , tools , appropriate technologies)
  • Target environment variables (f.ex additional softwares functions)

Usually the development process take place in a very complex environment. The more complex is situation the greater software is made.

The relationship between environmental complexity and probability of success is very simple. The biggest probability of success is when the complexity is low and it falls down when the complexity increase , but this relation is not proportionate. Suppose we have three degrees of environmental complexity : low , medium and high.

    Let’s consider the following situations:
  • Low complexity. The probability of success is high
  • Between low and medium complexity. The probability falls down very fast.
  • Medium , between medium and high and complexity. The probability decrease into a very value but decrease is smaller and not so sharp as we have between low and medium complexity.

Risk of the failure depends also on the lifecycle of the product. If the developers wont react at the beginning and wont resolve problems they will overlap and then the probability of success will fall down very fast. The final result will be for sure disappointing.

And what happens if we use the Scrum methodology?...

Scrum methodology will increase probability of success in every degree of environmental complexity. How to explain this? It is very simple. Thanks to the flexibility and adaptability Scrum work much better in situations of continuously changing circumstances or requirements. It may be compared to the evolution theory. The evolution choose those one who can and wont to change , adapt to the new environmental factors , like Scrum and forget about those who are not adaptable , like the traditional methods. All factors that appears during the development process are considered and resolved as far as possible and the Scrum methodology doesn’t isolate from them. The greater chaos, the better software development process.